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Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, November 1, 2026 — NFL Prediction & Pick

Our model leans Jacksonville Jaguars

strong lean

The model leans Jacksonville Jaguars primarily because of advantages in Market line and Form. The projected margin is JAX by 6.8 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and form.

On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Jacksonville Jaguars (7 edges vs 0 for Indianapolis Colts).

The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.

Matchup Breakdown

Market line — leans Jacksonville Jaguars

Market spread: JAX -7.5. Market total: 46.5. Market features move the margin about 3.3 points toward JAX.

Market spread: JAX -7.5.
Market total: 46.5.

Form — leans Jacksonville Jaguars

Form supports JAX by about 0.6 points of margin. The clearest gaps are points scored per game, points allowed per game, and recent margin.

Points scored per game: JAX 27.4 vs IND 21.8 — leans JAX.
Points allowed per game: JAX 19.0 vs IND 25.5 — leans JAX.
Recent margin: JAX +10.1 vs IND -4.2 — leans JAX.
Offensive EPA: JAX +0.00 vs IND +0.00 — roughly even.
Defensive EPA: JAX +0.00 vs IND +0.00 — roughly even.
Offensive success rate: JAX 0.0% vs IND 0.0% — roughly even.
Defensive success rate: JAX 0.0% vs IND 0.0% — roughly even.
Offensive matchup: JAX +0.00 vs IND +0.00 — roughly even.
Opponent win rate faced: JAX 0.511 vs IND 0.507 — roughly even.
Head-to-head win rate: JAX 100% — leans JAX.

Rest — leans Jacksonville Jaguars

Rest comparisons lean JAX.

Days of rest: JAX 14 vs IND 7 — leans JAX. JAX is coming off a bye.

Context — leans Jacksonville Jaguars

Context comparisons lean JAX.

Home field is included for JAX.

Betting Lines

Jacksonville Jaguars -8.0 (Matchbook) | O/U 46.5 (Matchbook)

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This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.