Sunday, October 11, 2026 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model sees this as a true toss-up between Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars. The projected scores are about even. That lean is driven mainly by form. Market line and Market blend pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Eagles (2 edges vs 1 for Jacksonville Jaguars).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line pulls the other way and favors PHI by about 1.7 points of margin. The market spread feature is +1.5.
Market blend pulls the other way and favors PHI by about 0.8 points of margin. The published margin is blended 35% toward the market line (-1.5 points).
Form is a large contribution and supports JAX by about 0.7 points of margin. Points scored per game: JAX 28.1, PHI 19.4.
Jacksonville Jaguars -8.0 (Matchbook) | O/U 41.5 (LowVig.ag)
Philadelphia Eagles 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 19 — Jacksonville Jaguars win
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.