Sunday, October 11, 2026 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Los Angeles Chargers primarily because of advantages in Market blend. The projected margin is LAC by 1.7 points. That lean is driven mainly by market blend. Form pulls the other way.
Tracked inputs were split fairly evenly between the two sides.
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Form pulls the other way and favors DEN by about 0.5 points of margin. Points scored per game: LAC 17.1, DEN 20.4.
Market blend is a large contribution and supports LAC by about 0.4 points of margin. The published margin is blended 35% toward the market line (+2.5 points).
Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 41.5 (Pinnacle)
Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17 — Denver Broncos win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.