Sunday, September 21, 2025 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Dallas Cowboys primarily because of advantages in Market line, Form, and Context. The projected margin is DAL by 1.6 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and form.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Dallas Cowboys (3 edges vs 0 for Chicago Bears).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports DAL by about 1.8 points of margin. The market spread feature is +1.5.
Form is a large contribution and supports DAL by about 1.0 points of margin. Points scored per game: CHI 18.1, DAL 23.2.
Context is a large contribution and supports DAL by about 0.5 points of margin.
Chicago Bears +1.5 (Coolbet) | O/U 50.0 (Pinnacle)
Dallas Cowboys 14, Chicago Bears 31 — Chicago Bears win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.