Sunday, December 22, 2024 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Philadelphia Eagles primarily because of advantages in Market line and Market blend. The projected margin is PHI by 2.1 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and market blend. Form pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Eagles (2 edges vs 1 for Washington Commanders).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports PHI by about 3.7 points of margin. The market spread feature is +4.5.
Form pulls the other way and favors WSH by about 0.4 points of margin. Points scored per game: WSH 26.7, PHI 26.5.
Market blend is a large contribution and supports PHI by about 0.4 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (-4.5 points).
Washington Commanders +4.0 (Matchbook) | O/U 47.0 (Matchbook)
Philadelphia Eagles 33, Washington Commanders 36 — Washington Commanders win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.