Sunday, November 24, 2024 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Seattle Seahawks primarily because of advantages in Form. The projected margin is SEA by 0.8 points. That lean is driven mainly by form. Market line and Market blend pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Arizona Cardinals (2 edges vs 1 for Seattle Seahawks).
The model leans Seattle Seahawks even though the simple edge count favors Arizona Cardinals. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Market line pulls the other way and favors ARI by about 1.3 points of margin. The market spread feature is +1.5.
Form is a large contribution and supports SEA by about 0.8 points of margin.
Market blend pulls the other way and favors ARI by about 0.4 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (-1.5 points).
Seattle Seahawks +1.0 (Pinnacle) | O/U 46.5 (Matchbook)
Arizona Cardinals 6, Seattle Seahawks 16 — Seattle Seahawks win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.