Sunday, October 13, 2024 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Chicago Bears primarily because of advantages in Form. The projected margin is CHI by 1.4 points. That lean is driven mainly by form. Market line and Market blend pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Jacksonville Jaguars (2 edges vs 1 for Chicago Bears).
The model leans Chicago Bears even though the simple edge count favors Jacksonville Jaguars. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Form is a large contribution and supports CHI by about 1.6 points of margin. Points scored per game: CHI 22.8, JAX 21.1.
Market line pulls the other way and favors JAX by about 1.0 points of margin. The market spread feature is +1.5.
Market blend pulls the other way and favors JAX by about 0.5 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (-1.5 points).
Chicago Bears +1.5 (Coolbet) | O/U 44.5 (Coolbet)
Jacksonville Jaguars 16, Chicago Bears 35 — Chicago Bears win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.