Thursday, September 19, 2024 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans New York Jets primarily because of advantages in Market line and Form. The projected margin is NYJ by 5.8 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and form. Context pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New York Jets (2 edges vs 1 for New England Patriots).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports NYJ by about 3.0 points of margin. The market spread feature is -6.5.
Form is a large contribution and supports NYJ by about 1.2 points of margin. Points scored per game: NYJ 18.0, NE 15.2.
Context pulls the other way and favors NE by about 0.5 points of margin.
New York Jets -6.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 39.0 (Pinnacle)
New England Patriots 3, New York Jets 24 — New York Jets win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.