Sunday, September 15, 2024 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Dallas Cowboys primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is DAL by 3.6 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Form and Context pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New Orleans Saints (2 edges vs 1 for Dallas Cowboys).
The model leans Dallas Cowboys even though the simple edge count favors New Orleans Saints. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Market line is a large contribution and supports DAL by about 2.6 points of margin. The market spread feature is -6.5.
Form pulls the other way and favors NO by about 0.9 points of margin. Points scored per game: DAL 30.2, NO 30.3.
Context pulls the other way and favors NO by about 0.7 points of margin.
Dallas Cowboys -6.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 47.0 (Matchbook)
New Orleans Saints 44, Dallas Cowboys 19 — New Orleans Saints win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.