Sunday, September 15, 2024 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Detroit Lions primarily because of advantages in Market line and Market blend. The projected margin is DET by 5.0 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and market blend. Context pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Detroit Lions (2 edges vs 1 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports DET by about 2.4 points of margin. The market spread feature is -7.5.
Context pulls the other way and favors TB by about 0.8 points of margin.
Market blend is a large contribution and supports DET by about 0.4 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (+7.5 points).
Detroit Lions -7.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 52.0 (LowVig.ag)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, Detroit Lions 16 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.