Sunday, January 7, 2024 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans New England Patriots primarily because of advantages in Context. The projected margin is NE by 1.7 points. That lean is driven mainly by context. Market line pulls the other way.
Tracked inputs were split fairly evenly between the two sides.
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line pulls the other way and favors NYJ by about 1.6 points of margin.
Context is a large contribution and supports NE by about 0.8 points of margin.
New England Patriots -2.0 (LowVig.ag) | O/U 28.5 (LowVig.ag)
New York Jets 17, New England Patriots 3 — New York Jets win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.