Sunday, December 31, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Los Angeles Rams primarily because of advantages in Market line and Market blend. The projected margin is LAR by 4.1 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and market blend. Context pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Los Angeles Rams (2 edges vs 1 for New York Giants).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports LAR by about 5.2 points of margin. The market spread feature is +6.5.
Context pulls the other way and favors NYG by about 0.7 points of margin.
Market blend is a large contribution and supports LAR by about 0.4 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (-6.5 points).
New York Giants +6.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 43.5 (Matchbook)
Los Angeles Rams 26, New York Giants 25 — Los Angeles Rams win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.