Monday, December 11, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Miami Dolphins primarily because of advantages in Market line and Market blend. The projected margin is MIA by 11.2 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and market blend. Rest pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Miami Dolphins (2 edges vs 1 for Tennessee Titans).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports MIA by about 7.2 points of margin. The market spread feature is -13.5.
Rest pulls the other way and favors TEN by about 0.4 points of margin.
Market blend is a large contribution and supports MIA by about 0.4 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (+13.5 points).
Miami Dolphins -13.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 44.5 (Matchbook)
Tennessee Titans 28, Miami Dolphins 27 — Tennessee Titans win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.