Sunday, December 3, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Kansas City Chiefs primarily because of advantages in Market line and Market blend. The projected margin is KC by 1.7 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and market blend. Form pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Kansas City Chiefs (2 edges vs 1 for Green Bay Packers).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports KC by about 4.3 points of margin. The market spread feature is +5.5.
Form pulls the other way and favors GB by about 1.2 points of margin.
Market blend is a large contribution and supports KC by about 0.7 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (-5.5 points).
Green Bay Packers +5.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 43.5 (Matchbook)
Kansas City Chiefs 19, Green Bay Packers 27 — Green Bay Packers win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.