Sunday, November 5, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans New England Patriots primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is NE by 1.5 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Form pulls the other way.
Tracked inputs were split fairly evenly between the two sides.
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Form pulls the other way and favors WSH by about 1.1 points of margin. Points scored per game: NE 17.1, WSH 20.7.
Market line is a large contribution and supports NE by about 0.6 points of margin. The market spread feature is -2.5.
New England Patriots -3.0 (Matchbook) | O/U 40.5 (Matchbook)
Washington Commanders 20, New England Patriots 17 — Washington Commanders win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.