Sunday, October 1, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans New Orleans Saints primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is NO by 2.3 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Form and Context pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2 edges vs 1 for New Orleans Saints).
The model leans New Orleans Saints even though the simple edge count favors Tampa Bay Buccaneers. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Market line is a large contribution and supports NO by about 1.2 points of margin. The market spread feature is -4.5.
Form pulls the other way and favors TB by about 1.0 points of margin. Points scored per game: NO 17.1, TB 18.5.
Context pulls the other way and favors TB by about 0.5 points of margin.
New Orleans Saints -4.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 41.0 (Matchbook)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26, New Orleans Saints 9 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.