Monday, September 25, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Cincinnati Bengals primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is CIN by 1.8 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Context and Form pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Los Angeles Rams (2 edges vs 1 for Cincinnati Bengals).
The model leans Cincinnati Bengals even though the simple edge count favors Los Angeles Rams. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Context pulls the other way and favors LAR by about 0.6 points of margin.
Market line is a large contribution and supports CIN by about 0.5 points of margin. The market spread feature is -3.0.
Form pulls the other way and favors LAR by about 0.5 points of margin.
Cincinnati Bengals -3.0 (Matchbook) | O/U 45.5 (Matchbook)
Los Angeles Rams 16, Cincinnati Bengals 19 — Cincinnati Bengals win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.