Sunday, September 24, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Jacksonville Jaguars primarily because of advantages in Market line and Market blend. The projected margin is JAX by 5.1 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and market blend. Context pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Jacksonville Jaguars (2 edges vs 1 for Houston Texans).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports JAX by about 3.2 points of margin. The market spread feature is -7.5.
Context pulls the other way and favors HOU by about 0.6 points of margin.
Market blend is a large contribution and supports JAX by about 0.4 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (+7.5 points).
Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 (Pinnacle) | O/U 43.5 (Matchbook)
Houston Texans 37, Jacksonville Jaguars 17 — Houston Texans win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.