Sunday, September 24, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Las Vegas Raiders primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is LV by 1.7 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Context pulls the other way.
Tracked inputs were split fairly evenly between the two sides.
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Context pulls the other way and favors PIT by about 0.5 points of margin.
Market line is a large contribution and supports LV by about 0.4 points of margin. The market spread feature is -2.5.
Las Vegas Raiders -3.0 (Matchbook) | O/U 43.5 (Matchbook)
Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Las Vegas Raiders 18 — Pittsburgh Steelers win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.