Sunday, September 24, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans New England Patriots primarily because of advantages in Market line and Context. The projected margin is NE by 1.7 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and context.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New England Patriots (2 edges vs 0 for New York Jets).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports NE by about 2.2 points of margin. The market spread feature is +2.5.
Context is a large contribution and supports NE by about 0.7 points of margin.
New York Jets +2.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 35.5 (Matchbook)
New England Patriots 15, New York Jets 10 — New England Patriots win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.