Sunday, September 24, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Baltimore Ravens primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is BAL by 5.6 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Context pulls the other way.
Tracked inputs were split fairly evenly between the two sides.
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports BAL by about 3.5 points of margin. The market spread feature is -7.5.
Context pulls the other way and favors IND by about 0.6 points of margin.
Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (Pinnacle) | O/U 43.5 (Barstool Sportsbook)
Indianapolis Colts 22, Baltimore Ravens 19 — Indianapolis Colts win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.