Sunday, September 24, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Miami Dolphins primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is MIA by 4.0 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Form and Context pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Denver Broncos (2 edges vs 1 for Miami Dolphins).
The model leans Miami Dolphins even though the simple edge count favors Denver Broncos. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Market line is a large contribution and supports MIA by about 2.4 points of margin. The market spread feature is -5.5.
Form pulls the other way and favors DEN by about 0.6 points of margin.
Context pulls the other way and favors DEN by about 0.5 points of margin.
Miami Dolphins -6.0 (Matchbook) | O/U 47.5 (Matchbook)
Denver Broncos 20, Miami Dolphins 70 — Miami Dolphins win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.