Sunday, September 17, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Detroit Lions primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is DET by 2.3 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Form and Context pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Seattle Seahawks (2 edges vs 1 for Detroit Lions).
The model leans Detroit Lions even though the simple edge count favors Seattle Seahawks. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Market line is a large contribution and supports DET by about 1.7 points of margin. The market spread feature is -4.5.
Form pulls the other way and favors SEA by about 1.2 points of margin.
Context pulls the other way and favors SEA by about 0.8 points of margin.
Detroit Lions -4.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 47.0 (LowVig.ag)
Seattle Seahawks 37, Detroit Lions 31 — Seattle Seahawks win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.