Sunday, September 17, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Cincinnati Bengals primarily because of advantages in Market line and Form. The projected margin is CIN by 3.0 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and form. Context pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Cincinnati Bengals (2 edges vs 1 for Baltimore Ravens).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports CIN by about 0.9 points of margin. The market spread feature is -3.5.
Context pulls the other way and favors BAL by about 0.7 points of margin.
Form is a large contribution and supports CIN by about 0.5 points of margin. Points scored per game: CIN 22.0, BAL 18.0.
Cincinnati Bengals -3.0 (Matchbook) | O/U 45.5 (Matchbook)
Baltimore Ravens 27, Cincinnati Bengals 24 — Baltimore Ravens win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.