Sunday, September 17, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Atlanta Falcons primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is ATL by 1.8 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Context and Form pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Green Bay Packers (2 edges vs 1 for Atlanta Falcons).
The model leans Atlanta Falcons even though the simple edge count favors Green Bay Packers. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Market line is a large contribution and supports ATL by about 1.1 points of margin. The market spread feature is -2.5.
Context pulls the other way and favors GB by about 0.8 points of margin.
Form pulls the other way and favors GB by about 0.7 points of margin. Points scored per game: ATL 20.9, GB 26.6.
Atlanta Falcons -3.0 (Matchbook) | O/U 40.5 (Matchbook)
Green Bay Packers 24, Atlanta Falcons 25 — Atlanta Falcons win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.