Sunday, September 17, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Denver Broncos primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is DEN by 3.0 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Context pulls the other way.
Tracked inputs were split fairly evenly between the two sides.
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports DEN by about 1.8 points of margin. The market spread feature is -3.5.
Context pulls the other way and favors WSH by about 0.8 points of margin.
Denver Broncos -3.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 38.5 (Coolbet)
Washington Commanders 35, Denver Broncos 33 — Washington Commanders win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.