Sunday, September 17, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Houston Texans primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is HOU by 0.6 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Form and Context pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Indianapolis Colts (2 edges vs 1 for Houston Texans).
The model leans Houston Texans even though the simple edge count favors Indianapolis Colts. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Form pulls the other way and favors IND by about 1.9 points of margin. Points scored per game: HOU 16.6, IND 18.8.
Market line is a large contribution and supports HOU by about 1.1 points of margin. The market spread feature is -2.5.
Context pulls the other way and favors IND by about 0.6 points of margin.
Houston Texans -0.5 (Coolbet) | O/U 39.5 (Coolbet)
Indianapolis Colts 31, Houston Texans 20 — Indianapolis Colts win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.