Sunday, September 17, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is TB by 1.6 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Form and Context pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Chicago Bears (2 edges vs 1 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers).
The model leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers even though the simple edge count favors Chicago Bears. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Market line is a large contribution and supports TB by about 1.2 points of margin. The market spread feature is -2.5.
Form pulls the other way and favors CHI by about 0.9 points of margin.
Context pulls the other way and favors CHI by about 0.6 points of margin.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (LowVig.ag) | O/U 40.5 (Coolbet)
Chicago Bears 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.