Monday, September 11, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans New York Jets primarily because of advantages in Rest. The projected margin is NYJ by 0.5 points. That lean is driven mainly by rest. Market line and Market blend pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Buffalo Bills (2 edges vs 1 for New York Jets).
The model leans New York Jets even though the simple edge count favors Buffalo Bills. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Market line pulls the other way and favors BUF by about 1.7 points of margin. The market spread feature is +2.5.
Rest is a large contribution and supports NYJ by about 1.5 points of margin. Days of rest: NYJ 246, BUF 7.
Market blend pulls the other way and favors BUF by about 0.5 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (-2.5 points).
New York Jets +2.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 44.5 (Matchbook)
Buffalo Bills 16, New York Jets 22 — New York Jets win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.