Sunday, September 10, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans New Orleans Saints primarily because of advantages in Form and Rest. The projected margin is NO by 3.0 points. That lean is driven mainly by form and rest. Context pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned New Orleans Saints (2 edges vs 1 for Tennessee Titans).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Form is a large contribution and supports NO by about 0.5 points of margin. Points scored per game: NO 16.6, TEN 16.3.
Context pulls the other way and favors TEN by about 0.4 points of margin.
Rest is a large contribution and supports NO by about 0.4 points of margin.
New Orleans Saints -2.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 41.5 (Matchbook)
Tennessee Titans 15, New Orleans Saints 16 — New Orleans Saints win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.