Sunday, September 10, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Baltimore Ravens primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is BAL by 6.7 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Rest and Context pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Houston Texans (2 edges vs 1 for Baltimore Ravens).
The model leans Baltimore Ravens even though the simple edge count favors Houston Texans. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Market line is a large contribution and supports BAL by about 5.9 points of margin. The market spread feature is -9.5.
Rest pulls the other way and favors HOU by about 1.2 points of margin. Days of rest: BAL 7, HOU 244.
Context pulls the other way and favors HOU by about 0.7 points of margin.
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 (LowVig.ag) | O/U 43.5 (Coolbet)
Houston Texans 9, Baltimore Ravens 25 — Baltimore Ravens win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.