Sunday, September 10, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Seattle Seahawks primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is SEA by 2.2 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Rest and Context pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Los Angeles Rams (2 edges vs 1 for Seattle Seahawks).
The model leans Seattle Seahawks even though the simple edge count favors Los Angeles Rams. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Market line is a large contribution and supports SEA by about 1.5 points of margin. The market spread feature is -4.5.
Rest pulls the other way and favors LAR by about 1.0 points of margin. Days of rest: SEA 7, LAR 244.
Context pulls the other way and favors LAR by about 0.6 points of margin.
Seattle Seahawks -4.5 (LowVig.ag) | O/U 45.0 (Coolbet)
Los Angeles Rams 30, Seattle Seahawks 13 — Los Angeles Rams win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.