Sunday, September 10, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Denver Broncos primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is DEN by 1.1 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Form and Context pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Las Vegas Raiders (2 edges vs 1 for Denver Broncos).
The model leans Denver Broncos even though the simple edge count favors Las Vegas Raiders. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Form pulls the other way and favors LV by about 0.9 points of margin. Points scored per game: DEN 19.8, LV 22.4.
Market line is a large contribution and supports DEN by about 0.7 points of margin. The market spread feature is -3.0.
Context pulls the other way and favors LV by about 0.4 points of margin.
Denver Broncos -3.0 (Matchbook) | O/U 43.0 (Coolbet)
Las Vegas Raiders 17, Denver Broncos 16 — Las Vegas Raiders win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.