Sunday, September 10, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Jacksonville Jaguars primarily because of advantages in Market line and Form. The projected margin is JAX by 1.8 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and form. Rest pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Jacksonville Jaguars (2 edges vs 1 for Indianapolis Colts).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports JAX by about 2.5 points of margin. The market spread feature is +3.5.
Form is a large contribution and supports JAX by about 1.3 points of margin. Points scored per game: IND 18.4, JAX 25.0.
Rest pulls the other way and favors IND by about 1.3 points of margin. Days of rest: IND 244, JAX 7.
Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 45.5 (Pinnacle)
Jacksonville Jaguars 31, Indianapolis Colts 21 — Jacksonville Jaguars win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.