Sunday, September 10, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Philadelphia Eagles primarily because of advantages in Market line and Form. The projected margin is PHI by 2.4 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and form. Rest pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Philadelphia Eagles (2 edges vs 1 for New England Patriots).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports PHI by about 4.1 points of margin. The market spread feature is +3.5.
Rest pulls the other way and favors NE by about 1.5 points of margin. Days of rest: NE 245, PHI 7.
Form is a large contribution and supports PHI by about 1.1 points of margin. Points scored per game: NE 21.6, PHI 30.0.
New England Patriots +3.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 44.0 (Matchbook)
Philadelphia Eagles 25, New England Patriots 20 — Philadelphia Eagles win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.