Sunday, September 10, 2023 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Washington Commanders primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is WSH by 5.2 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Context and Form pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Arizona Cardinals (2 edges vs 1 for Washington Commanders).
The model leans Washington Commanders even though the simple edge count favors Arizona Cardinals. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Market line is a large contribution and supports WSH by about 3.1 points of margin. The market spread feature is -7.0.
Context pulls the other way and favors ARI by about 0.6 points of margin.
Form pulls the other way and favors ARI by about 0.4 points of margin.
Washington Commanders -7.0 (Pinnacle) | O/U 38.0 (Matchbook)
Arizona Cardinals 16, Washington Commanders 20 — Washington Commanders win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.