Sunday, January 3, 2021 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Seattle Seahawks primarily because of advantages in Market line and Form. The projected margin is SEA by 5.3 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and form. Context pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Seattle Seahawks (2 edges vs 1 for San Francisco 49ers).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports SEA by about 5.4 points of margin. The market spread feature is +7.0.
Form is a large contribution and supports SEA by about 0.8 points of margin. Points scored per game: SF 23.3, SEA 25.5.
Context pulls the other way and favors SF by about 0.4 points of margin.
San Francisco 49ers +7.0 (LowVig.ag) | O/U 45.0 (Matchbook)
Seattle Seahawks 26, San Francisco 49ers 23 — Seattle Seahawks win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.