Sunday, January 3, 2021 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Baltimore Ravens primarily because of advantages in Market line, Form, and Market blend. The projected margin is BAL by 10.7 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and form.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Baltimore Ravens (3 edges vs 0 for Cincinnati Bengals).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports BAL by about 8.8 points of margin. The market spread feature is +13.5.
Form is a large contribution and supports BAL by about 2.1 points of margin. Points scored per game: CIN 20.7, BAL 30.0.
Market blend is a large contribution and supports BAL by about 0.5 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (-13.5 points).
Cincinnati Bengals +13.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 45.0 (Matchbook)
Baltimore Ravens 38, Cincinnati Bengals 3 — Baltimore Ravens win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.