Sunday, January 3, 2021 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Las Vegas Raiders primarily because of advantages in Market line and Form. The projected margin is LV by 2.0 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and form. Context pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Las Vegas Raiders (2 edges vs 1 for Denver Broncos).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports LV by about 2.7 points of margin. The market spread feature is +2.5.
Form is a large contribution and supports LV by about 1.3 points of margin. Points scored per game: DEN 19.0, LV 26.0.
Context pulls the other way and favors DEN by about 1.0 points of margin.
Denver Broncos +2.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 50.5 (Matchbook)
Las Vegas Raiders 32, Denver Broncos 31 — Las Vegas Raiders win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.