Sunday, January 3, 2021 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Indianapolis Colts primarily because of advantages in Market line, Context, and Market blend. The projected margin is IND by 12.9 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and context.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Indianapolis Colts (3 edges vs 0 for Jacksonville Jaguars).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports IND by about 8.2 points of margin. The market spread feature is -15.5.
Context is a large contribution and supports IND by about 0.7 points of margin.
Market blend is a large contribution and supports IND by about 0.5 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (+15.5 points).
Indianapolis Colts -15.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 48.0 (Matchbook)
Jacksonville Jaguars 14, Indianapolis Colts 28 — Indianapolis Colts win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.