Sunday, January 3, 2021 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Los Angeles Chargers primarily because of advantages in Market line and Market blend. The projected margin is LAC by 4.0 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and market blend. Form pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Los Angeles Chargers (2 edges vs 1 for Kansas City Chiefs).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports LAC by about 6.0 points of margin. The market spread feature is +6.5.
Form pulls the other way and favors KC by about 0.6 points of margin. Points scored per game: KC 28.9, LAC 21.8.
Market blend is a large contribution and supports LAC by about 0.4 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (-6.5 points).
Kansas City Chiefs +7.0 (Matchbook) | O/U 43.0 (LowVig.ag)
Los Angeles Chargers 38, Kansas City Chiefs 21 — Los Angeles Chargers win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.