Sunday, December 27, 2020 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Cleveland Browns primarily because of advantages in Market line and Market blend. The projected margin is CLE by 3.8 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and market blend. Context pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Cleveland Browns (2 edges vs 1 for New York Jets).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports CLE by about 4.9 points of margin. The market spread feature is +6.5.
Context pulls the other way and favors NYJ by about 0.7 points of margin.
Market blend is a large contribution and supports CLE by about 0.5 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (-6.5 points).
New York Jets +6.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 44.5 (Bookmaker)
Cleveland Browns 16, New York Jets 23 — New York Jets win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.