Monday, December 21, 2020 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Pittsburgh Steelers primarily because of advantages in Market line and Market blend. The projected margin is PIT by 8.1 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and market blend. Context pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Pittsburgh Steelers (2 edges vs 1 for Cincinnati Bengals).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports PIT by about 7.1 points of margin. The market spread feature is +14.5.
Market blend is a large contribution and supports PIT by about 1.1 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (-14.5 points).
Context pulls the other way and favors CIN by about 0.4 points of margin.
Cincinnati Bengals +14.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 40.5 (Matchbook)
Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Cincinnati Bengals 27 — Cincinnati Bengals win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.