Sunday, December 20, 2020 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Miami Dolphins primarily because of advantages in Form and Context. The projected margin is MIA by 1.6 points. That lean is driven mainly by form and context. Market line pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Miami Dolphins (2 edges vs 1 for New England Patriots).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line pulls the other way and favors NE by about 1.3 points of margin. The market spread feature is +1.0.
Form is a large contribution and supports MIA by about 1.1 points of margin. Points scored per game: MIA 24.4, NE 21.3.
Context is a large contribution and supports MIA by about 0.5 points of margin.
Miami Dolphins +1.0 (Pinnacle) | O/U 40.5 (LowVig.ag)
New England Patriots 12, Miami Dolphins 22 — Miami Dolphins win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.