Sunday, December 20, 2020 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model sees this as a true toss-up between Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints. The projected scores are about even. That lean is driven mainly by market line and market blend. Form pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Kansas City Chiefs (2 edges vs 1 for New Orleans Saints).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports KC by about 2.5 points of margin. The market spread feature is +2.5.
Form pulls the other way and favors NO by about 0.6 points of margin.
Market blend is a large contribution and supports KC by about 0.4 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (-2.5 points).
New Orleans Saints +2.5 (Pinnacle) | O/U 53.5 (Matchbook)
Kansas City Chiefs 32, New Orleans Saints 29 — Kansas City Chiefs win
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.