Thursday, December 17, 2020 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Las Vegas Raiders primarily because of advantages in Market line and Context. The projected margin is LV by 1.8 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and context. Form pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Las Vegas Raiders (2 edges vs 1 for Los Angeles Chargers).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Form pulls the other way and favors LAC by about 1.2 points of margin.
Market line is a large contribution and supports LV by about 0.8 points of margin. The market spread feature is -3.5.
Context is a large contribution and supports LV by about 0.6 points of margin.
Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 52.5 (1xBet)
Los Angeles Chargers 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 — Los Angeles Chargers win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.