Sunday, November 29, 2020 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Atlanta Falcons primarily because of advantages in Form. The projected margin is ATL by 0.9 points. That lean is driven mainly by form. Market line and Market blend pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Las Vegas Raiders (2 edges vs 1 for Atlanta Falcons).
The model leans Atlanta Falcons even though the simple edge count favors Las Vegas Raiders. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Market line pulls the other way and favors LV by about 2.4 points of margin. The market spread feature is +3.5.
Form is a large contribution and supports ATL by about 2.4 points of margin.
Market blend pulls the other way and favors LV by about 0.8 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (-3.5 points).
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 (LowVig.ag) | O/U 53.0 (Matchbook)
Las Vegas Raiders 6, Atlanta Falcons 43 — Atlanta Falcons win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.