Monday, October 5, 2020 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Green Bay Packers primarily because of advantages in Market line and Form. The projected margin is GB by 4.5 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line and form. Context pulls the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Green Bay Packers (2 edges vs 1 for Atlanta Falcons).
The model's lean lines up with that edge count. The score model and the raw stat comparison point the same way.
Market line is a large contribution and supports GB by about 1.8 points of margin. The market spread feature is -5.0.
Context pulls the other way and favors ATL by about 0.6 points of margin.
Form is a large contribution and supports GB by about 0.5 points of margin. Points scored per game: GB 30.0, ATL 27.6.
Green Bay Packers -5.0 (Matchbook) | O/U 56.5 (LowVig.ag)
Atlanta Falcons 16, Green Bay Packers 30 — Green Bay Packers win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.