Sunday, October 4, 2020 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Houston Texans primarily because of advantages in Market blend. The projected margin is HOU by 1.2 points. That lean is driven mainly by market blend. Form and Context pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Minnesota Vikings (2 edges vs 1 for Houston Texans).
The model leans Houston Texans even though the simple edge count favors Minnesota Vikings. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Form pulls the other way and favors MIN by about 1.0 points of margin. Points scored per game: HOU 21.7, MIN 23.3.
Context pulls the other way and favors MIN by about 0.5 points of margin.
Market blend is a large contribution and supports HOU by about 0.4 points of margin. The published margin is blended 15% toward the market line (+3.5 points).
Houston Texans -3.5 (Matchbook) | O/U 52.5 (LowVig.ag)
Minnesota Vikings 31, Houston Texans 23 — Minnesota Vikings win — Model pick was incorrect
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.