Sunday, September 27, 2020 — NFL Prediction & Pick
The model leans Pittsburgh Steelers primarily because of advantages in Market line. The projected margin is PIT by 2.1 points. That lean is driven mainly by market line. Form and Context pull the other way.
On balance, more tracked inputs leaned Houston Texans (2 edges vs 1 for Pittsburgh Steelers).
The model leans Pittsburgh Steelers even though the simple edge count favors Houston Texans. One large margin contribution can outweigh several smaller stat edges, because the model does not weigh every input equally.
Market line is a large contribution and supports PIT by about 1.4 points of margin. The market spread feature is -3.5.
Form pulls the other way and favors HOU by about 1.2 points of margin. Points scored per game: PIT 18.7, HOU 21.8.
Context pulls the other way and favors HOU by about 0.6 points of margin.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (Pinnacle) | O/U 46.5 (LowVig.ag)
Houston Texans 21, Pittsburgh Steelers 28 — Pittsburgh Steelers win — Model pick was correct
This analysis is generated by a statistical model and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.